Global Europe

Armenia and Turkey have lived under a shadow of mutual distrust for decades. Moving on was never going to be easy but both countries recognized the need for change and engaged in a process of rapprochement which culminated in the signing of two Protocols to normalize relations, including the reopening of their border, in Switzerland in October 2009. It seemed like the start of a reconciliation that would bring the decades of distrust to an end, increasing stability and prosperity in a region which has been plagued by troubles for most of the last century.  However, more than five months later the two Protocols remain unratified and the process is in serious danger of failure.

While it was clear from the start that the road to normalization would be paved with difficulties, Turkey's decision to link the process to progress towards the resolution of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict has been the biggest single obstacle. Turkey has boxed itself in as backtracking on the numerous promises made to Azerbaijan's leadership would now seem almost impossible, not to mention the backlash from many circles in Turkey itself. Now Turkey looks for others to blame.

The international community -- US, EU and Russia -- has always been clear that it sees no link between the two processes. There may have been a miscalculation by Ankara, particularly regarding Moscow. Turkey seemed to expect Russia to pressure Armenia into withdrawing troops from a number of the Azerbaijani provinces it occupies (around 17 percent of Azerbaijan). If Ankara believed that Russia was so desperate for a solution to Karabakh that it would pressure Yerevan to give up territory, this would have been a naïve approach.

Russia has been quite contended with the status quo for the last two decades and is in no desperate hurry to change it. Therefore, the Kremlin is happy to go along with the Armenian policy. Russia has a fixed strategy towards Yerevan, which is Moscow's closest ally in the South Caucasus. Furthermore, Russia's position is in line with that of the rest of the international community; Turkey and Azerbaijan are in so far isolated.

It is highly unlikely that Armenia will remove one soldier until a comprehensive peace settlement has been agreed with Azerbaijan. Negotiations between Baku and Yerevan have been underway for some time on a set of “basic principles”, and while there does seem to be increasing agreement on many issues, there are still difficulties, including the eventual status of Karabakh and how that would be decided. Withdrawing soldiers in any other circumstances would be political suicide for President Sargsyan.  Armenia has survived for 17 years with two closed borders -- one can be sure it can survive a few more. Turkey's insistence, if anything, makes the peace talks more difficult, given that Armenia's leadership will not want to be perceived as making “concessions” in order to appease Turkey and get the border opened.  It has also resulted in Armenia threatening to withdraw the signature from the Protocols if Turkey continues to make Karabakh a “precondition” for ratification.

Furthermore, Turkey received no support for its rather over the top reaction to the Armenian Constitutional Court decision in January.  The Court decided to support the Protocols on the grounds that they are consistent with the founding principles of the Armenian state, which commit Armenia to pursue the recognition of the 1915 killings as genocide. Both the US and Russia stated that they did not see this as an obstacle to progress. Turkey -- government and opposition -- however made too much noise over this, making it look like Turkey is scratching around for excuses not to ratify. 

All this has been further complicated with the approval of the Armenian “genocide” resolution by the US House Foreign Relations Committee earlier this month, which has left Ankara furious, accusing Washington of not wanting the rapprochement to succeed. Developments in Washington were disappointing as were those in Sweden a few days later when parliamentarians narrowly approved a resolution recognizing the genocide and prompting Ankara to withdraw its ambassador in protest. Swedish Foreign Minister Carl Bildt said he regretted the decision because it would serve as another blow to Turkey's reconciliation with Armenia. Ankara will almost certainly use these new development as an excuse for the continuing lack of progress -- blaming others rather than itself.

While Turkey's backtracking damages it credibility and calls Davutoglu's “zero problems with neighbours” strategy into question, at the same time it is not unreasonable to expect Armenia to make some sort of gesture that would be a benefit for the region.  For example, Armenia could ease the blockade of Nakjchivan, an Azerbaijani territory which is cut off from the rest of Azerbaijan by Armenia. This could be done by getting the long de-funct railway line that once linked Azerbaijan, Armenia, Nakhchivan and Turkey back into operation.

Allowing this process to crash and burn would be a tragedy. Turkey and Armenia need to finish what they started and take brave new steps now. If Turkey won't ratify, Armenia should move first. Yerevan should stop the talk of withdrawing signatures and rather bring the protocols to Parliament for ratification. A derailment of the process could well leave Turkey and Armenia in a worse situation than before. As for Azerbaijan, it may well be riding high on its oil and gas money now but this will not last forever. It is time for all three to see the bigger picture.