Global Europe

The news from the south east of Europe is gloomy and quite pessimistic these days. Greece, once the wealthiest, more stable and more extrovert state of the region, is suffering from its worst ever economic crisis, since the fall of the 1974 military dictatorship, and from a decreasing credibility in its regional, European and global environments. The current economic crisis in Greece threatens the economic sustainability and growth prospects of the country, and may be the precursor of more trouble for the other peripheral members of the euro-zone, Portugal, Italy, Spain and Ireland, all of which have high public debts and fiscal deficits.

To the north of Greece, Bulgaria is often slammed by the European Commission for its failure to tackle high level corruption and organised crime which makes even the most loyal supporters of EU enlargement doubt whether it was a wise move to accept Bulgaria and Romania in 2007.

Another young member of the European Union, Cyprus is struggling with the lingering division of the island and despite the current talks between the leaders of the two communities, there is international scepticism as to whether the two sides are anywhere near any kind of meaningful communication. As a result of the Cyprus division but also due to French and German reluctance, Turkey’s accession talks are progressing very slowly and not surely, so much so that the country has decided to pursue its own risky regional “neo-Ottoman” foreign policy and to downplay its European orientation.

And last but not least, the Western Balkans, former Yugoslav, area has developed into a sub-region of small and inexperienced states which are pursuing their own individual paths to the European Union, a fragmented regional environment, with various problems of political, security, economic and post-conflict nature and where reconciliation moves at a very slow pace. At the core of this quagmire, Bosnia is slipping back to internal divisions and the three ethnic communities are growing apart from each other, destabilising the fragile unity of the Dayton state. Post-independence Kosovo, while peaceful, is still a partly internationally recognised state and remains the main impediment in Serbia’s road to the European Union.

Finally, Greece is still entangled with the name of Macedonia, and after 20 years of non-progress on the issue, the country struggles to find a face saving solution, to avoid internal and external humiliation, and, in the meantime, it blocks the start of accession talks with the EU and the NATO accession of its northern neighbour.

Yet, not too far back, there was a regional momentum at the start of the new century and the first years of the new decade were more optimistic and hopeful for South East Europe. Greece was then preparing for the 2004 Athens Olympics, it was a more confident EU member state, having just joined the euro zone and was an active regional partner advocating the integration of the Balkans into the EU, and investing heavily in the region. Turkey was becoming more open and democratic and was starting accession talks with the European Union, under a new more stable AKP government that seemed committed to political reforms and European integration. The two countries had just begun a rapprochement, and were deepening their bilateral relations in the fields of energy, tourism and banking. The Republic of Cyprus, influenced by this positive Greek-Turkish environment, was preparing for its accession to the EU, while in the north of the island, Turkish Cypriots were getting rid of their nationalist leadership which had been the main impediment to the island’s reunification; the two communities were discussing the solution of the Cyprus problem in the context of a comprehensive UN plan.

The regional confident climate was fostered by Bulgaria and Romania, which were speeding up their political and economic efforts to meet the criteria for EU accession and were becoming more attractive markets for foreign direct investment. Croatia and Serbia were coming out of their respective authoritarian regimes of Tudjman and Milosevic, they were strengthening their links with the international community and they were beginning to distance themselves from the conflicts of the 1990s. The EU was intensifying its involvement in the region by offering to the Western Balkans a plan for future membership, and a comprehensive regional framework of cooperation and assistance in the form of the Stability Pact.

Between the years 2000 and 2005, South East Europe resembled a region that was struggling to overcome its past divisions; it was becoming outward looking, and was pursuing regional cooperation and normalisation. Behind all these positive developments stood a supportive and committed European Union, the common point of reference for all these diverse states.

The 2010 regional climate is less promising and more vulnerable, in that all South East European countries are consumed by their own national problems, which are exacerbated by the recent economic crisis. The future looks vague and uncertain, regarding Greece’s economic dynamism, Turkey’s europeanization, Cyprus’ reunification or the former Yugoslav states’ normalisation and regional re-integration.

Yet the single most important danger for the region is that of becoming disconnected from the European stream, and of the South East European states turning introvert and detached from each other. As the recent experience shows, the region of South East Europe fairs better when it is outward looking and its constituent states are cooperating with each other.

The role of the European Union as a catalyst for regional cooperation and integration is pivotal. The positive environment of the first part of the decade was largely due to a welcoming EU, with an attitude of solidarity, assistance and commitment. The current insecurity is partly the result of the lack of EU leadership and regional initiative and the EU’s reluctance to deal with the multiple problems of weak and peripheral states in its own backyard.

During the last few years after the last enlargement to the east, the EU became more detached and tired of the region, downplaying the prospect of membership for the candidate and potential candidate countries and focusing on intermediate rewards instead. These weaker signals led to the declining of the regional momentum and the slower progress in the relations between the individual countries and the EU.

Yet for the region’s as well as its own sake, the EU has to re-engage with South East Europe and support the quality of democracy in Turkey, Bulgaria or Serbia, the steady economic recovery in Greece, and the post-conflict ethnic co-existence in Kosovo, Bosnia or Cyprus. For this it has to become more political and, even, interventionist with the internal affairs of members and associate countries. It has to strengthen its pre-accession as well as post-accession conditionality, to continue with the financial support of the weak states in the region and to reinstate the prospect of membership for those countries which are not yet EU member states. The task is daunting but it is only through these local challenges that the EU can claim global ambitions.