Confidence back in Europe. AFP reports:
A surge in confidence in Europe’s economy fuelled hope Thursday that the region is finally overcoming its financial troubles just days after European banks largely survived a crash test.
The Economic Sentiment Indicator produced by the European Commission soared in July to its highest level in more than two years, driven by eurozone powerhouse Germany, improved order books and optimism among consumers. “July’s sharper-than-expected increase in economic sentiment will further allay fears of a near-term double dip recession in the Eurozone and may give fresh support to the euro,” Dutch banking group ING said in a note.
The European Commission said sentiment in industry was the “main contributor to the overall improvement,” with an increase of two points as respondents in the sector reported “substantial improvements in their order books.” Consumer confidence “regained momentum” with a 3.0-point jump in the euro area, the European Union’s executive arm said. “More optimism about the general economic situation and very significant easing unemployment fears in Germany contributed to the overall improvement,” the commission said.
The data helped to drive the euro on Thursday to its highest level against the dollar since May.
EU foreign ministers agree to scrap four EUSR posts. The European Voice reports (subscribers only):
EU member states have reached a preliminary agreement to scrap four of the EU’s special representatives on foreign policy.
Foreign ministers agreed to extend the life of another six, as part of the new European External Action Service (EEAS), but could not agree about the future of Pieter Feith, who has a double mandate as EUSR in Kosovo and head of the International Civilian Office (ICO) there. Some of the countries that have not recognised Kosovo say that the ICO is in effect supporting Kosovo’s independence.
The EUSR posts for Macedonia, Moldova, the Middle East and the south Caucasus are to be abolished from the end of February. The posts are currently held by Erwan Fouéré, Kálmán Mizsei, Marc Otte and Peter Semneby.
The EUSRs for Afghanistan, the African Union, Bosnia and Herzegovina, central Asia and Georgia, the Great Lakes region of Africa, and Sudan will have their mandate extended by one year and will join the EEAS. The extension of the mandates, whether by 12 months or, in the case of the posts being abolished, by six, is to be adopted by the member states in a written procedure in the coming weeks. A diplomat said that the decision was “part technical roll-over of mandates, part political signalling”.
NATO working on contingency plans for Eastern Europe. The Economist has the story:
In the heart of NATO’s military headquarters, SHAPE, near the Belgian city of Mons, an unspoken revolution is taking place: planners are thinking about how to defend eastern European members from Russian attack. For years after the cold war, the orthodoxy was that Russia did not pose a threat, so NATO did not need to draw up contingency plans to protect newer members, such as the Baltic states. That has now changed, NATO officials say, though nobody wants to speak about it publicly. (…)
Many post-communist states, and even Norway, are nervous that the focus on “expeditionary” operations such as Afghanistan has weakened mutual defence under Article 5 of the NATO charter. The Kremlin has given them reasons to worry: the Russian-inspired cyber-attacks on Estonia in 2007, Russia’s war with Georgia in 2008 and the large military exercises in western Russia in 2009 that culminated in a mock nuclear strike on Warsaw. A more robust stance on military planning is meant to reassure allies.
David Cameron’s foreign policy. Adrian Hamilton comments in the Independent:
First, credit where credit is due. David Cameron may be overdoing things a bit in his drive for trade opportunities in India – it could be called hypocritical to demand that India opens its doors to free trade whilst we close our doors to free immigration – but in terms of recalibrating British foreign policy, the Prime Minister has picked up the ball and is playing it with quite astonishing panache.
He said before the election that he wanted to take the country away from its excessive pursuit of influence through a “junior partnership” with the United States to a more genuinely worldwide view based on our interests, country by country, and that he is doing. Last week he made it pretty clear in Washington that Britain was rebalancing its priorities. This week he started to make clear where that might be.
Quentin Peel is, on the FT Brussels blog, critical of Cameron’s Turkey trip:
The UK prime minister was very outspoken in his support for Turkish membership of the European Union. “I will remain your strongest possible advocate for EU membership,” he said. “Together I want us to pave the road from Ankara to Brussels.” It was familiar British policy, but spelt out with unusual passion, and very few cautionary words. (…)
Turkish media seized on some of the most flattering comments from Mr Cameron. “Our golden age” was the headline in the top-selling newspaper Hurriyet, while the Sabah daily blazoned its front page with “The EU would be poor without Turkey”. (…)
Mr Cameron’s desire to please his hosts is in danger of arousing unrealistic expectations. Even in Britain, full Turkish membership of the EU cannot be taken for granted. The reality is that both in Turkey and across the EU, attitudes have cooled. Accession is a long-term prospect, not an early option.
And Geoffrey Wheatcroft, writing in the FT, sees only “flattery and false steps”:
Since May, the coalition government has tried to fashion a new approach to the world. William Hague, the foreign secretary, gave a speech in which he formulated a “distinctive British foreign policy”, moving beyond an obsession with the “blocs”, the US, Europe and Middle East, to forge links with the emerging powerhouses of India, China and Brazil. That is presumably what Mr Cameron thinks he has been doing this week. He will no doubt gain goodwill in two of the emerging powers in the new international order and perhaps lucrative preferential treatment for British business. But he has also gained a record of flattering his immediate audience while giving offence elsewhere, and he has given the impression of making things up as he goes along. This series of interventions raises questions over whether his government
has a considered foreign policy at all. (…)
When he expressed strong support for Turkish admission to the European Union he was more than ingratiating. This was empty rhetoric. He must know Turkey is not going to join the EU in any foreseeable future. Whether it should is not the question. It won’t happen. Why pretend otherwise? (…)
Now to cap it all, while telling businessmen in Bangalore of a new special relationship with India he denounces Pakistan. He could not have chosen a venue better designed to provoke resentment in Islamabad. We did not need the recent leaked documents to tell us about the links between the Pakistani intelligence service and the Taliban. But saying this in public – and in India itself – seemed a calculated insult to Pakistan just when the west needs its help.
Forging a new foreign policy has been one of the more audacious of the coalition’s aims. But it surely cannot be done on the hoof or off the cuff. At the very least, when he next ventures abroad, he should remember the saying “look before you leap”. And think before you speak.
See also a Reuters report about Cameron’s “frank talk”.
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