Morning Brief (29-7)

Thursday, 29 July 2010 • By Ulrich Speck

Nuclear talks with Iran in sight? Reuters reports:

Iran and the United States sent positive signals on Wednesday about the possibility of fresh talks on the Iranian nuclear program, which Washington suspects aims to develop atomic weapons.

Iran has given an assurance that it would stop enriching uranium to 20 percent purity if world powers agreed to a proposed nuclear fuel swap, Turkish Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoglu told reporters in Istanbul.

The offer, conveyed to Davutoglu on Sunday, could bode well for an expected resumption of talks in September between Iran and major powers on the Islamic Republic’s atomic program, which Tehran says is for peaceful purposes and not for bombs.

Asked about Davutoglu’s comments, the U.S. State Department said Iran had often sent mixed signals but that the United States was “fully prepared” to resume talks among the six major powers and Tehran about Iran’s nuclear program.

Iran last met the United States, Britain, China, France, Germany and Russia in Geneva in October, when they discussed Iran sending some low-enriched uranium abroad in exchange for fuel for a Tehran reactor that makes medical isotopes.

“We hope to have the same kind of meeting coming up in the coming weeks that we had last October,” State Department spokesman P.J. Crowley told reporters. “We are interested in a process — more than one meeting.”

A U.S. official said Iran may be trying to “have their cake and eat it too,” by swapping some low enriched uranium for nuclear fuel while continuing to enrich at some level. “A lot depends on the details,” of what Iran is willing to do, he added, saying the West had responded coolly to Iranian initiatives earlier this year because they seemed designed to stymie U.N. Security Council sanctions that passed in June. “Now that that process is completed, if Iran wants to engage on these subjects we are more than happy to have that conversation,” the official said.

Reuters also reports that Catherine Ashton is pushing for nuclear talks as well:

Stalled talks between Iran and world powers should begin again as quickly as possible but must focus on Tehran’s nuclear program, European Union foreign policy chief Catherine Ashton said Wednesday. “I’ve made it clear…that we would like those talks to resume quickly and that we would be very clear that the issue on the table is Iran’s nuclear weapons capability and approach,” Ashton told reporters at a conference in Rome. “That is the issue. All other issues can be discussed later.”

US pushing for direct Israeli-Palestinian talks. Politico’s Laura Rozen reports:

Secretary of State Hillary Clinton has been “burning up the phone lines” the past five days to try and lay the groundwork for a transition from indirect to direct Israel-Palestinian peace talks, aides say. Clinton’s phone calls with Arab and Israeli leaders come in advance of a meeting Thursday of Arab foreign ministers to decide if they will give their blessing to Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas for direct talks with the Israelis, rather than U.S.-mediated proximity talks. (…)

In the last five days, Clinton has spoken “multiple times” with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, twice with the Jordanian and Egyptian foreign ministers, as well as with the Saudi foreign minister, Qatari prime minister, Middle East Quartet envoy Tony Blair, EU foreign policy chief Baroness Catherine Ashton, and with Middle East peace envoy George Mitchell and the National Security Council throughout, the official said.

Serbia: diplomatic offensive against Kosovo’s statehood. Reuters reports:

Serbia launched a diplomatic offensive on Wednesday to contest Kosovo’s independence, asking the United Nations General Assembly to decide about the future of its former southern province. (…) In a draft resolution the Serbian government acknowledged the court’s ruling but said that “unilateral secession cannot be an acceptable way of resolving territorial issues.” “(The government) calls all the parties involved to find a mutually accepted solution … through peaceful dialogue in the interest of peace, security and cooperation in the region,” the draft said.

Last week the Serbian government announced it would send envoys to 55 nations to stop more countries recognizing Kosovo. Ambassadors in another 40 capitals will do the same.

In the resolution, the Serbian government asked the U.N. General Assembly to put an item on “further activities after the adoption of the advisory opinion of the International Court of Justice” on the agenda of its 66th session. Also on Wednesday, Foreign Minister Vuk Jeremic flew to the United States to meet UN Secretary General Ban Ki-Moon.

However, Kosovo said it would renew its campaign to lobby for recognition from more countries than the present 69 and help it to secure membership of the United Nations. Kosovo deputy foreign Minister Vlora Citaku said Serbia should let go of “the mentality of the past and … recognize the new situation.” “We repeat our offer to Serbia about cooperation and dialogue on issues of mutual interest, but Serbia should know that the independence and territorial integrity are untouchable,” she told Reuters.

Serbia could risk progress toward its goal of joining the European Union if it maintains its defiance on Kosovo, blocking Pristina’s membership in regional bodies and stopping goods and people with Kosovo documents from entering its territory.

Ashton’s plans for Bosnia. The Daily Telegraph reports:

A confidential paper, tabled by Europe’s foreign minister this week, has urged the creation of a powerful European envoy this autumn, based in Sarajevo, to push through a new constitutional order for Bosnia and Herzegovina.

Key to the political reforms, demanded as a condition of EU entry for Bosnia, is a strengthening of a multi-ethnic federal state, mainly controlled by Muslims and Croats, at the expense of Republika Srpska, the Bosnian Serb government.

To overcome Serb blocking tactics, Lady Ashton is demanding that her new Bosnian envoy, part of her newly created diplomatic service, be given new powers by the Council of EU foreign ministers to impose travel bans and asset freezes on opponents.

“In the case of non-compliance… for example challenges to fundamentals of the Bosnia and Herzegovina state, the [envoy] will be able to recommend to the EU High Representative [Lady Ashton] that Council impose travel bans and/or the freezing of assets in the EU,” said the paper seen by The Daily Telegraph. “This option should be made more accessible by a Council decision to impose a travel ban on those individuals who have challenged key provisions.”

European diplomats have confirmed that the new measures will be used against “anyone deemed to be obstructive”, including Milorad Dodik, the elected prime Bosnian Serb prime minister, who backs independence from Bosnia. “Dodik will not be a happy bunny but he will have to watch his Ps and Qs,” said a senior EU diplomat. (…)

Lady Ashton’s policy paper, “Next steps in Bosnia and Herzegovina through stronger EU presence and a reinforced EU policy”, sets out a plan for European officials to be take over the running of Bosnia “soon after” Bosnian elections in October. “The approach it advocates would prepare the EU to take over the leading international role in Bosnia,” the document said.

Since the Dayton peace agreement in 1995 ended the Bosnian war, Bosnia has been overseen by an Office of the High Representative (OHR) charged with helping the country become a “peaceful and viable democracy on course for integration into Euro-Atlantic institutions”. The new proposals envisage taking “the mandate and functions” of the OHR into the new European diplomatic service, creating “a single EU representative”, also overseeing peace keepers and a policing mission in Bosnia. Bosnia’s European envoy would report to a new “managing director” for Russia and the EU eastern neighbours, a new high-ranking post in Brussels to be appointed in Lady Ashton’s diplomatic service this autumn.

New EU diplomatic service “harmstrung from the start”? Quentin Peel writes on the FT Brussels blog:

Lord Ashdown, the former leader of the Liberal Democrats, has emerged as a Lady Aston’s favourite for the job supervising the Bosnia envoy as part of EU’s overall strategy in the Balkans.

If the optimists are right, the service will be anything but boring. It’s the most important single invention to come out of the Lisbon treaty, say the true believers. It will give the European Union the eyes and ears to forge a genuine foreign policy, and the voice to put it into effect.

On the other hand, eurosceptics are convinced it will just be a vast and expensive new bureaucracy, merely duplicating the role of national embassies. So the battle to keep its wings clipped may also be anything but boring.

The 27 member states sit somewhere in the middle – not quite sure they believe in what they are creating, wanting to keep it under control, and no doubt trying to do it all on a shoe-string. In the end, their attitude will determine if it’s a success or a failure. (…)

But national capitals never like giving up their powers, and foreign ministries are no exception. The British have refused to allow the future EU delegations to take on a consular role. What chance is there that national embassies will be slimmed down as the EU delegations are built up? (…)

At a time when every member state is taking an axe to public expenditure, it certainly won’t be popular to spend a whole lot more on the EAS – unless cuts can be made on national diplomatic services. The danger is that the grand old foreign services, like the French and British, will fight a furious rearguard action to protect their patches, and keep funding of the EAS to a minimum. If they do, then the most important creation of the Lisbon treaty will be hamstrung from the start.

From the think tanks: Cristina Barrios, EU cooperation with the African Union: Problems and potential. FRIDE, here.

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