UN court: Kosovo’s declaration of independence legal. The New York Times reports:
Kosovo’s unilateral declaration of independence from Serbia in 2008 did not violate international law, the United Nations’ highest court said Thursday in a ruling that Kosovo heralded as a victory but that legal experts warned could spur separatist movements around the world.
Legal experts said that while the International Court of Justice had ruled that Kosovo’s declaration of independence was legal, it had avoided saying that the state of Kosovo was legal under international law, a narrow and carefully calibrated compromise that they said could allow both sides to declare victory in a dispute that remains raw even 11 years after the war there.
Political analysts said the advisory opinion, passed in a 10-to-4 vote by the court judges, is likely to spur other countries to recognize Kosovo’s independence. Of the 192 countries in the United Nations General Assembly, so far only 69, including the United States and a majority of European Union nations, have recognized Kosovo.
Reading the nonbinding opinion, whose political consequences could reverberate far beyond Kosovo, Hisashi Owada, president of the International Court of Justice, said that international law contained no “prohibition on declarations of independence” and consequently that Kosovo’s declaration “did not violate international law.” (…)
James Ker-Lindsay, a Balkan expert at the London School of Economics, said the court had trod carefully in weighing the right of a people to self-determination over the right of a sovereign state to territorial integrity, and had decided to sidestep the issue altogether. “It has essentially said that Kosovo’s legitimacy will be conferred by the countries that recognize it rather than by the court,” he said. (…)
“The court invariably is very prudent and avoids making political decisions,” said Bert Barnhoorn, an expert at the Asser Institute for International Law, a policy organization in The Hague.
The FT’s Gideon Rachman comments:
The International Court of Justice seems to have done its utmost to sit on the fence over the legality of Kosovo’s secession from Yugoslavia. It has ruled that Kosovo’s declaration of independence was legal, but it has not pronounced on the legality of the secession as such. This feels to me like an evasion. Common sense and the norms of free speech suggest that, of course, they are allowed to proclaim their independence. The question is whether the rest of us should recognise an independent Kosovo as a legal entity.
The ICJ’s evasion of this issue is, however, politically convenient. If the court had positively declared Kosovan secession legal, then secessionist movements across the world would have taken huge heart. But if they had declared secession illegal, then it would have been a severe embarrassment to those western nations who took part in the Kosovo war – as well as to the 69 nations that have now recognised Kosovan independence.
At Foreign Policy, David Bosco writes:
There was less at stake in the ICJ decision than it seemed. Kosovo is effectively independent, and no court decision was going to change that (the ruling was an advisory opinion without binding legal force, in any case). For all its anger, Serbia has no appetite to physically challenge Kosovo’s status. NATO troops still walk the beat in the disputed province, and Serbia has ambitions of joining the European Union, which would frown severely at any aggressive moves. In fact, most Serbian politicians probably breathed a quiet sigh of relief today. A decision questioning Kosovo’s independence would have forced them into a nationalist posture; now they will be able to move past an issue that’s been a continuing obstacle to joining the EU.
The decision mattered most in the recognition game. While more than 60 countries have recognized Kosovo, many were sitting on the fence, awaiting the ICJ’s decision. Today’s ruling will likely push many of them to forge relations with Kosovo, a development that will simplify its diplomatic, trade, and economic relations. “No country now has any reason not to recognize Kosovo,” Thaci told me today. Nearby, his finance minister theatrically checked his email to see whether any recognition announcements had arrived.
The Economist’s Tony Judah writes about reactions in Serbia and Kosovo:
Serbia’s strategy of attempting to outmanoeuvre its former secessionist province through the international court lay in ruins.
In Pristina, Kosovo’s capital, cars began hooting in celebration. Cheers erupted from bars and cafes, where people had gathered to watch the judge deliver the court’s opinion. Shkelzen Maliqi, a well-known intellectual and commentator, summed up what most Kosovars were thinking: “Perfect. Who would have expected such a clear answer?” In Belgrade there seemed no room for doubt either. “It was a classic knockout,” said Braca Grubacic, an analyst. “I don’t know how the government can get out of this.”
To date 69 countries have recognised Kosovo’s independence, including the US and 22 of the 27 EU member states. But Russia, China, Brazil, India and many other important countries have refused to follow suit. Whether a flood of new recognitions will follow today’s ruling remains to be seen, but would not be surprising. It is, however, unlikely that China, with its eyes on Taiwan and Tibet, Russia, with its problems in Chechnya, and other countries in the world with secessionist movements will recognise Kosovo any time soon. (…)
The court had been widely expected to give an ambiguous answer. The fact that the opinion is heavily in Kosovo’s favour leaves open the question of what Serbia will do now. It had planned to go to the General Assembly of the UN to demand new talks. Now that plan appears in jeopardy, if not doomed. The EU, however, has been planning talks between Kosovo and Serbia on technical matters.
Serbia’s government will be rocked by this result. The Serbian Orthodox Church has called for bells to be rung out this afternoon and a protest rally has been called by Serbs in the divided northern Kosovo city of Mitrovica. In the last few weeks there have been three violent incidents there, resulting in one death. Mitrovica’s Serbs have been preparing an armed response in case jubilant Albanians try to cross the river Ibar, which divides the city. In the wake of the opinion helicopters from the NATO-led peacekeeping force in Kosovo have been circling above the city. (…)
Serbia’s president, Boris Tadic, is due to address the nation. Mr Jeremic has declared that the struggle will continue. Kosovo’s president, Fatmir Sejdiu, jubilantly declared: “God bless Kosovo!” But after the party Kosovo will remain one of the poorest parts of Europe, a country that does not control all of its territory and one that is riddled with corruption. Until now, Kosovo’s leaders have been able to blame Serbian intransigence for their failure to implement reforms and improve living standards. That excuse will now lose some of its potency, especially if more countries recognise the state.
Serbia too faces problems. Its EU accession process has slowed of late. As Mr Grubacic points out, Mr Tadic had promised Serbs both the EU and Kosovo. Now neither looks likely. Yet while Serbia’s EU bid may be stymied for now, it is certainly not dead. Dreams of Kosovo are another story.
CSIS analyst Janusz Bugajski says that Russia is still a key player on Kosovo, and that the US should now use its leverage on Moscow:
The Serbian government will continue to campaign against Kosovo’s membership in multi national organizations, but its obstruction would be significantly reduced if it lacked strong backing from Russia. Because Kosovo’s legitimacy and Balkan stability correspond with U.S. security interests, Washington can more effectively use its outreach policy toward Moscow to reverse Russia’s opposition to Kosovo’s entry into the UN. Without international institutional inclusion and economic integration, Kosovo and several neighboring states, including Serbia itself, could become trapped in a new spiral of conflict over territories and minorities. Settling Kosovo’s international position and stabilizing Balkan borders presents a valuable opportunity for Russian president Dmitry Medvedev to demonstrate his declared commitment to European security.
The EU Observer looks deeper into the question of whether the ruling might embolden separatist movements elsewhere:
The court’s finding is likely to encourage more states to welcome Kosovo into the international community of independent states, but it is also likely to embolden separatist movements in other regions of the world.
However, analysts reckon that recognition of states has less to do with international law than realpolitik, and the key is not winning court cases, but winning a majority of the right kind of other important states on board.
“Lots of pints will be drunk in Catalan, Scottish and Quebecois bars tonight,” Richard Gowan, an analyst with the European Council on Foreign Affairs, “but alongside the hangover they wake up with, they will wake up with the realisation that not much has changed.” “How many countries have indicated that tomorrow they would recognise an independent Basque Country or Catalonia?” he said. “It’s just about zero.” “Whether a region establishes itself on the international stage is fundamentally a political rather than a legal issue at root.”
He noted that Abkhazia and South Ossetia, the breakaway regions that declared independence from Georgia in 2009, have only been recognised by Russia, Nicaragua and Nauru. “And in the case of Taiwan, the number of countries that recognise it have dropped year after year as they recognise the hegemony of Beijing.” “The key for Kosovo was that countries had indicated before the fact that they would recognise them. Ten years ago when they first tried it, no one was with them.”
EU foreign policy chief Catherine Ashton has made the following statement:
The EU welcomes the publication of the advisory opinion of the International Court of Justice. We are studying it with great care.
The advisory opinion opens a new phase. The focus should now be on the future. The future of Serbia lies in the European Union. The future of Kosovo also lies in the European Union. This is in line with the European perspective of the region and the relevant Council conclusions.
Good neighbourly relations, regional cooperation and dialogue are the foundations on which the EU is built.
The EU is therefore ready to facilitate a process of dialogue between Pristina and Belgrade. This dialogue would be to promote cooperation, achieve progress on the path to Europe and improve the lives of the people. The process of dialogue in itself would be a factor for peace, security and stability in the region.
EU envoys endorse sanctions against Iran, AFP reports:
The European Union reached agreement Thursday on a package of sanctions against Iran which targets Tehran’s energy sector over its refusal to halt sensitive nuclear work, an EU diplomat said. Ambassadors from the 27 EU member states met in Brussels to endorse the sanctions, which include measures against the oil and gas industry and must be approved at a meeting of foreign ministers on Monday to come into force. “The text on the restrictive measures against Iran have been adopted,” the diplomat said on condition of anonymity.
EU urges Chad to arrest Beshir, AFP reports:
EU foreign affairs chief Catherine Ashton urged Chad on Thursday to arrest Sudan’s visiting President Omar al-Beshir and hand him over to an international court to face genocide charges. Ashton “urges Chad to respect its obligations under international law to arrest and surrender those indicted by the ICC (International Criminal Court),” her press office said in a statement. She said Chad was a signatory of the Rome Statute, the founding document of the ICC, obliging it to arrest any person on its territory wanted by the court.
Ashton’s office did not indicate whether the EU could act against Chad if it did not meet her request.
Kremlin has lost patience with Lukashenka, the Economist says:
The Kremlin makes no secret that Mr Lukashenka has finally exhausted its patience. For years it subsidised his regime with cheap gas and duty-free crude oil, which Belarus refined and re-exported; it stood by him when he rigged elections and cracked down on protesters. But it feels it got little in return. Mr Lukashenka would not sell Belarusian refineries to Russian firms, he refused to recognise the independence of the breakaway Georgian provinces of South Ossetia and Abkhazia, and he sheltered Mr Bakiyev.
His obstinacy over the customs union was the last straw. Russia sees the union as a linchpin of its “zone of privileged interest”, its economic alternative to the European Union. Instead of helping Vladimir Putin, Russia’s prime minister, in his historic mission to reunite the parts shattered by the Soviet collapse (a quest compared by one Putin loyalist to the reunification of Germany), the maverick Belarusian president has become an obstacle.
To increase the pressure on him, Russia has now raised gas prices and slashed its supply of crude. If Mr Lukashenka’s entourage feel that Moscow has ditched their boss, they may abandon ship. Russia is also stirring up the Belarusian opposition. “For the first time in 16 years people in Belarus are looking to Russia with hope,” says Andrei Sannikov, an opposition leader.
This hope may be premature. Mr Lukashenka has often outmanoeuvred his Russian sponsors, who are wary of losing Belarus to the West. Russia’s offensive could be aimed at threatening Mr Lukashenka rather than deposing him. No opposition politician in Belarus would consider integration with Moscow as a serious alternative to the EU.
France and Germany to coordinate defence spending cuts, the EU Observer reports:
German defence minister Karl-Theodor zu Guttenberg and his French counterpart Herve Morin on Wednesday (21 July) agreed in Paris to set up a working group to look into the matter, with a first meeting set for beginning of September.
From the think tanks: Clara Marina O’Donnell, A transatlantic defence market, forever elusive? CER, here.
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