Morning Brief (13-7)

Tuesday, 13 July 2010

ICC charges Sudanese President with genocide. The New York Times reports:

The International Criminal Court in The Hague said Monday that it had issued a second arrest warrant for President Omar Hassan al-Bashir of Sudan, this time for three counts of genocide. The arrest order will be added to the warrant issued in March 2009, in which the court said he should stand trial for war crimes and crimes against humanity.

All of the charges against Mr. Bashir are linked to the conflict in the western Darfur region of Sudan, where an estimated 300,000 people have died and more than two million have been uprooted by almost a decade of fighting between the government and rebels.

Even genocide — the gravest charge — may not bring the Sudanese leader closer to trial in The Hague any time soon. He has so far defied the court’s orders and denied all accusations. But because genocide charges carry a heavy weight, they may further complicate his international dealings and travels.

War looming in Sudan, Dave Eggers and John Prendergast warn in a New York Times op-ed:

In 2005, the United States helped broker a comprehensive peace agreement between the Sudanese government and the southerners. It was an important moment for international diplomacy and a prime example of what the United States can do when it focuses its influence effectively.

In the clear, simple and eminently enforceable peace agreement, South Sudan was granted three crucial things: robust participation in the central government while ruling the south semi-autonomously; a 50-50 split of all oil revenues (the country’s oil is largely in the south); and the ability, in 2011, to vote to secede via referendum.

The assumption in Sudan is that when the referendum comes, southerners will vote overwhelmingly for secession. Since Sudan became independent in 1956, the people in the south have been marginalized, terrorized and subjected to countless human rights violations under successive regimes in Khartoum, and the possibility of forming a new nation in 2011 is viewed by southerners as a sacred right.

But the referendum is scheduled for January, a mere six months away, and all signs indicate that the Khartoum government will undermine the voting process or not recognize its results. The ruling National Congress Party has stalled on virtually every pertinent part of the peace agreement, and the national and local elections in April — which most international observers agree were stained by fraud — are a foreboding precedent.

If January comes and goes without a referendum, or if the results are manipulated, then fighting will break out. Both sides have been arming themselves since the peace agreement, so this iteration of north-south violence will be far worse than ever before. And if war resumes in the south, the conflict in Darfur, in western Sudan, will surely explode again.

150 million Euro for Sudan. From the Commission’s press statement:

High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy/Vice-President of the European Commission Catherine Ashton said: “Sudan is now at a critical juncture. The EU wants to see the full implementation of the Comprehensive Peace Agreement as the way forward to a better future for the population of Sudan. At the same time we call for an all inclusive process that will lead to a comprehensive peace agreement in Darfur.”

Andris Piebalgs, Commissioner responsible for Development said: “The international community has a crucial role to play in promoting stability and development in Sudan. The EU’s decision today proves we remain committed to the Sudanese population and the stability of Sudan.” (…)

The €150 million will be used to address the needs of the most vulnerable populations in Sudan, in particular in the war-affected areas, including the South of Sudan and Darfur, in the border regions between North and South Sudan (the Transitional Areas) and in East Sudan. The funding complements ongoing development and humanitarian programmes in Sudan, including over €500 million in development assistance committed since 2005 and over €750 million in humanitarian assistance since 2003. In addition, the European Commission has adopted an Instrument for Stability decision (€15 million) for the provision of basic services in South Sudan and support to the referendum process.

EU-Turkey Political Dialogue meeting in Istanbul today. From the press statement:

The main objective of the meeting – in which Turkish Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoğlu and Chief Negotiator Egemen Bağış will participate – is to reaffirm the EU’s commitment to Turkey and explore ways how the EU and Turkey can enhance cooperation in the region.

HR/VP Catherine Ashton said: “Turkey has recently started to become more assertive in its foreign policy. We welcome the increasingly important role of Turkey in the region. In this context we will also look at the ways in which the EU and Turkey can enhance cooperation.”

Štefan Füle, Commissioner for Enlargement and European Neighbourhood Policy said: “The Political Dialogue provides for a timely confirmation of Turkey’s perspective of EU membership and the continuation of the enlargement process. I hope that more chapters could be opened this year, if Turkey meets the necessary conditions. Of course the engine of the whole process are the reforms taking place in Turkey. The Commission will continue to support Turkey in carrying out these reforms.”

Today’s Zaman reports about Turkish expectations of the meeting:

“We will discuss not only the negotiation process but also all regional and global issues,” Turkey’s chief EU negotiator, State Minister Egemen Bağış, told Today’s Zaman on Monday while noting that Ashton and Füle will be coming to Turkey for “political consultations.”

“Upon our request, counterterrorism efforts are also included on the agenda of this meeting. Our prior expectation was to have more and effective support from both the European Commission and the member countries against this trouble called terrorism,” Bağış said.

In addition to Ankara’s firm demand that its EU partners lend efficient support to its fight against the outlawed Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK), the Turkish government’s ongoing efforts for a constitutional reform will also be on agenda of the meeting.

Gilles de Kerchove, the EU’s counterterrorism coordinator, recently held talks with Turkish officials in Ankara to coordinate efforts against the PKK amidst increasing attacks by the organization, which is listed as a terrorist organization by the bloc as well.

The dispute between the five permanent UN Security Council members and Germany (P5+1) and Turkey’s neighbor Iran surrounding the latter’s controversial nuclear program, an Iranian nuclear fuel swap on the basis of an agreement reached with Turkey and Brazil in May, the Middle East peace process and the western Balkans are some of the joint global items on the agenda of the İstanbul meeting.

Ankara’s demand that Israel offer an apology or accept an international inquiry into its raid on a Gaza-bound aid ship is likely to be high on the agenda of the talks, with the Turkish side urging the EU for more concrete support of Turkey’s stance.

“She is very well aware of Turkey’s reasonable expectations from Israel, if Ms. Ashton would like to mediate on the dispute between Turkey and Israel: apology, compensation for families of the victims and lifting of the illegal embargo on Gaza. We would naturally welcome the recovery of ties with Israel if Ms. Ashton can persuade Israeli officials to meet these demands,” Bağış said.

VOA has a backgrounder on the state of Turkey’s EU membership bid. And at Foreign Policy, Aliza Marcus takes a closer look at Turkey’s PKK policy.

ElBaradei on Egypt. Spiegel online has an interview with Mohamed ElBaradei who is challenging Mubarak’s power.

New Europe has a China special, overview of contributions here.

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