Iraq: Mission not accomplished. The Economist warns over potential failure in Iraq:
Seven years after the Americans invaded Iraq and toppled Saddam Hussein, two momentous events are approaching: a general election on March 7th and the promised departure of all American combat troops by the end of August. Yet governments across the world, most notably Barack Obama’s, seem to have turned their attention elsewhere. Iraq is already yesterday’s story. This is a grave error. The country has been devastated, in good part thanks to the miscalculations of America and its Western allies. It is progressing shakily and still needs outside help. And it is vital to the stability of the region. The mission has by no means been accomplished.
Security Council still divided on Iran sanctions. The Washington Post reports:
The United States and its allies face resistance to sanctions on Iran not only from China, but from other influential countries on the U.N. Security Council, principally Brazil, Lebanon and Turkey, raising the possibility of a sharply divided vote on a sanctions resolution. (…)
The United States and its European allies are confident that they can secure at least 10 votes, including from nonpermanent members Austria, Bosnia, Gabon, Mexico, Nigeria and Uganda — one more than the nine required for passage in the council. But the failure to secure a united front, particularly from the five veto-wielding members of the council, would send a weak signal to the Iranians, diplomats said. U.S. and European officials are eager to have the resolution adopted before a May 4-15 review conference on the 1970 Non-Proliferation Treaty (…)
Turkey’s Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan has sought to position his government as a key power broker in the Middle East, mediating disputes between Israel and Syria and looking for a similar role in Iran. But Turkish diplomats are concerned that a vote for sanctions would jeopardize its ability to play the role of an honest broker. “They have really raised their level of diplomatic engagement quite dramatically over the last years and the Erdogan government feels that it has a privileged relation to Tehran,” said a senior ambassador involved in the talks.
Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva is seeking to position his government as a leader of the developing world, which often sees sanctions as a Western tool of pressure against poor countries. In New York, Brazilian diplomats have voiced concern to their counterparts that the resolution might deprive Iran of its right to possess nuclear power, according to a council diplomat.
EU Commission: $273 Million for Nabucco pipeline. The NY Times reports:
Günther Oettinger, the bloc’s commissioner for energy, pledged 200 million euros ($273 million) for a pipeline that would start delivering gas by around 2015 from the Caspian Sea region, bypassing Russia and Ukraine. It was the first time the commission had offered money for the construction phase of a gas pipeline. Mr. Oettinger said the offer, which was presented as part of a package of energy infrastructure projects worth 2.3 billion euros, was a “milestone” for European energy policy. “We’re not just supporting an idea anymore, we’re talking about funding,” Mr. Oettinger said in a news conference in Brussels.
The pipeline, known as the Nabucco project, would stretch more than 2,000 miles, or 3,220 kilometers, from Turkey across Bulgaria and Romania and into Austria. The project has significant strategic implications for Europe, which is seeking to reduce its dependence on Russian gas.
Mr. Oettinger also offered encouragement to a rival, Russian-backed project called South Stream, which would take Russian natural gas under the Black Sea to Europe. “We advocate South Stream and we are watching the decision-making procedure in a positive sense,” he said.
Mr. Oettinger emphasized that the companies backing Nabucco, including R.W.E. of Germany and O.M.V. of Austria, needed to make a decision by autumn on whether to go forward, or to use the money for other projects. “All participants want decisions to be taken, one way or the other, this year in fact,” he said. The total cost of the Nabucco project is estimated at 8 billion euros ($10.9 billion), or about 40 times more than the sum pledged Thursday. But Mr. Oettinger said the money still represented a “trump card on the table” for Nabucco. The pledge could help restart progress on Nabucco because the companies that back the pipeline would need to begin ordering some of the pipes to receive the money, according to European officials, who spoke on condition of anonymity in accordance with the organization’s policy.
EU not living up to aid commitments, leaked document says. Reuters has the story:
The European Union’s development chief may be forced to name and shame France, Germany and Italy for not living up to their aid commitments, contributing to a roughly $17 billion funding gap this year. Andris Piebalgs warned in January he would clearly identify EU countries that failed to meet their aid commitments. “In 2010, the EU aid disbursements are likely to further grow to approximately 54-55 billion euros ($74-75 billion),” a leaked EU document seen by Reuters shows. “Many member states will most probably not reach their… aid targets. A gap of 12-13 billion euros remains.” The paper did not name France, Germany or Italy, but an OECD report last month said they were among the EU’s worst performers. The paper also warned the shortfall threatens the EU’s standing in climate talks, which this year aim to build on the weak accord reached in Copenhagen in December.
New bloc in the bloc? Four central European EU member states have agreed to cooperate closer, the Economist says:
Amid worries that France and Germany are stitching up the European Union’s decision-making, the Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland and Slovakia are reviving their ties and pushing shared ideas on energy security and relations with the east. (…) At a summit in Budapest on February 24th Visegrad showed signs of renewed life. The big shift is in Poland, where go-it-alone policies have given way to enthusiasm for working with the neighbours. Under the voting rules of the Nice treaty, in force until 2014, Visegrad countries have as many votes in the EU as France and Germany combined.
Next year Hungary and Poland will each have six months in the EU’s rotating presidency. Eurocrats in Brussels like to portray the rotating presidency as largely redundant now there is a permanent European Council president. The Poles and Hungarians are working closely together to disprove this. Hungary wants a “Danube strategy” to divert EU money and attention to the river basin. Poland supports this, in return for Hungarian backing for more EU aid to countries such as Georgia, Moldova and Belarus.
Lukashenko, the chess master. The GMF’s Pavol Demeš portrays the Belarusian president as a master in diplomatic tactics:
When Aleksander Lukashenko, the authoritarian president of Belarus, began a recent campaign to intimidate and punish members of the country’s disobedient Polish community, he opened a new front not only with neighboring Poland, but also with the EU as a whole that must now meet that challenge head on. (…)
Lukashenko is at his chess game again — and winning. Top Western officials are writing him letters, negotiating, and asking him politely to do the things they would like him to do. Fact-finding missions are coming to Belarus to discover what they knew before. While Poland and the EU take the time to consider their next step, Lukashenko is already way ahead of them. Indeed, his plans likely include making a grand display of stopping the attacks and beginning a reconciliation process between Belarusians and Poles. But before he does that, he’ll ask for further international financial assistance and other benefits from the very people and institutions who are now asking him to stop persecuting his country’s minorities. And when that assistance arrives, he will use it to extend his control over domestic resistance and opposition before the new round of elections early next year.
Lukashenko is a tough chess player who frequently uses forbidden moves (including removing pieces from the board) that throw his domestic and international opponents off-balance. The new EU leaders should recognize that their peculiar neighbor will not respond to standard diplomatic warnings and pressure, does not care about EU membership, and is capable of creating the illusion of success for those who enter into negotiations with him. They must appreciate that he is fully aware of the West’s political and economic weaknesses and the increasingly process-driven mentality when it comes to democracy assistance and the protection of human rights. In short, the policy of engagement that replaced the strict isolation of Lukashenko’s regime needs to be rethought and recalibrated.
Ashton to fight back against critics. The Guardian reports:
Britain’s Lady Ashton will tomorrow (Friday) fight back against attacks on her performance as the new EU foreign policy chief, seeking a truce with the French after strong criticism from Paris, and demanding the full backing of the EU’s 27 governments.
With Brussels embroiled in an intense power struggle over the direction of EU foreign policy and the shape of an ambitious new EU diplomatic service, known as the External Action Service (EAS), Ashton will meet President Nicolas Sarkozy’s top foreign and defence officials in Paris before heading to Córdoba, in southern Spain, where EU foreign ministers will focus on the new regime.
“She will tell the foreign ministers to take collective responsibility for what they created,” said a senior EU official.
Britain sought to shore up Ashton against her critics ahead of the crucial weekend meetings, as David Miliband, the foreign secretary, wrote a letter of support together with Carl Bildt, Sweden’s foreign minister. Referring to the power struggles in Brussels, Miliband and Bildt complained that “inter-institutional rivalries are well-ingrained … we are concerned about some of the inter-institutional struggles evident in our current negotiations on the EAS package. Our summits don’t always bring the concrete deliverables that they should,” they wrote. “We must be honest when we debate this at Córdoba and admit we must do better.”
EU governments are alarmed that the aim of turning the new service into a powerful foreign policy instrument is being blocked and undermined by the European commission. One EU diplomat said: “The foreign ministers need to get behind this [new service] and make sure they get behind Cathy Ashton. The commission is opposed because it wants to keep all expertise. This is the moment when the member states should get strategic.”
The Financial Times quotes an EU official:
“The devil is in the details in these negotiations,” said one EU official. “The member states only this week realised that the Commission was trying to take over this baby that they have crafted, and they want it back. They are firmly in Ashton’s camp.”
The Economist’s Charlemagne has an excellent behind-the-scenes report. For more press coverage (major British newspapers and press agencies) of the issue please go to Global Europe’s News&Views section.
Ashton to miss EU-Morocco summit. On Saturday and Sunday, an EU-Morocco summit will take place in Granada, Spain. Herman Van Rompuy will attend (and chair), but Ashton will be absent, which appears to enrage Spanish diplomats, according to El Mundo (Todos contra Ashton).
Summit routine. Daniel Korski comments on the upcoming EU-Pakistan summit:
The Pakistan-EU summit will take place on April 10, a follow up to the first meeting last autumn. But you would be hard-pressed to know anything about the event, since nobody is taking ownership of it: not Herman Van Rompuy, the European Council’s new permanent president; not Catherine Ashton, the EU’s new foreign policy chief; not even Spanish Prime Minister José Luis Zapatero, who has pushed Spain onto the stage in plenty of other areas. The reason is simple: the EU has nothing new to say or offer.
Money without state. Harold James meditates about the Euro:
The euro precisely measures international tensions in that it is a bold experiment: a currency that is not linked to a state, but rather follows from international rules and treaties. It is a creature of the intellect rather than a product of power. It is a post-modern or post-sovereign currency. But in the aftermath of a crisis, countries put national interests above their willingness to go along with international rules.
Read today on Global Europe: No pain, no gain. The partnership between the EU and Morocco must be filled with life. By Kristina Kausch, Research Fellow at FRIDE, Madrid.
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