Progress in AfPak. The biggest allied offensive in Afghanistan since 2001, Operation Mushtarak, which is going on in Marja, Helmand, “has so far proven to be a moderately successful affair”, the Economist says. And Pakistan’s capture of the Afghan Taliban’s operational commander, with US help, seems to reflect “a markedly changed attitude toward an insurgent force that the country had allowed to operate with relative impunity for the past eight years”, the Washington Post believes.
US-China tension is overstated, says Carnegie’s Minxin Pei in the IHT:
The rapid downturn in a relationship that was, until recently, marked by cordiality and tranquility has led many to worry about another extreme: a qualitative deterioration and eventually a full-fledged rivalry. Such fears are overblown, in the same way that recent talks of a close-knit U.S.-China strategic partnership (a.k.a. G-2) were premature and naïve.
In many ways, the sudden worsening of ties between Beijing and Washington really means that U.S.-China relations are returning to “normalcy.” Because of the deep and unbridgeable differences between the two countries in terms of their political values, conceptions of international order and geopolitical interests, constant frictions, even minor conflicts, should be the rule. Chumminess and absence of tensions, as displayed during Mr. Obama’s first year in office, are actually the exception.
Additionally, the downturn in ties also reflects two important policy adjustments by President Obama. First, a tough stance toward China is part of an overall hardening of his foreign policy. China is not getting special treatment. Second, the Obama administration has specific reasons to be less accommodating to China because of Beijing’s recent assertiveness, such as its uncooperative behavior at the Copenhagen climate change summit, obstructionism on sanctions against Iran, and intensified repression of dissent at home.
Some worry that Beijing will respond to Washington’s policy adjustments with retaliation, thus initiating a vicious cycle. While it is true that the Chinese government has turned up its blustering several notches, we should learn to tell bark from bite. Other than canceling its military exchange program with the U.S., which is not viewed as productive in any case, China’s retaliations are mostly rhetorical and symbolic. The real test, of course, will be Iran. If Beijing single-handedly blocks sanctions against Tehran at the United Nations Security Council, that would be serious. But Chinese leaders must also know that they will surely face the united wrath of the United States and Europe, a prospect no smart mandarins in China relish. (…)
What lies ahead should be familiar to China watchers: After the huffing and puffing is over, Beijing and Washington will start repairing the damage. As for the rest of the world, it had better get used to frequent, but controlled, rows between China and the United States.
Ashton under fire. The Independent reports:
The EU’s new foreign policy chief has come in for a barrage of criticism that is severely undermining her credibility less than three months into her tenure, say Brussels officials. A public attack on Baroness Ashton of Upholland that first appeared in the French press and was partly fuelled by her decision not to travel to Haiti in the aftermath of the earthquake has sharpened in recent weeks. Spain’s Foreign Minister Miguel Angel Moratinos is among those believed to have joined the growing ranks of European officials to take aim at the newcomer.
The attacks may help to explain why the Baroness flew to the Balkans yesterday and – with an EU military mission to Haiti is to begin this week – why one of Baroness Ashton’s officials said this might be “the right moment” for the Labour peer to visit the stricken Caribbean country. Lady Ashton used a summit of EU leaders on the Greek economic crisis last week to claim back some ground in the battle with her detractors by announcing the military mission. “She will start travelling a lot more now and will cover as much ground as [Javier] Solana did. But she really felt it has been essential for her to learn the ropes in Brussels before heading abroad,” her spokesman said.
The initial goodwill towards the 53-year-old appears to be ebbing amid her continuing lack of confidence during foreign policy briefings and ministerial meetings, when she is regularly eclipsed by her more seasoned colleagues. Spain’s Mr Moratinos – whose country currently holds the rotating EU presidency – has reportedly been venting his frustration during visits to Brussels when he has compared her negatively to Javier Solana, the political veteran who held the post of High Representative for a decade. Senior officials within her team complain that she “sticks to generalities”. (…)
“She very badly and urgently needs a success story or she will lose this image war,” a senior diplomat in Brussels said. “At first people were inclined to be kind and wait for her to come good. But she is keeping them waiting a little too long.”
Ashton’s aides say she is still relatively sanguine, but has been angered over what she perceives as “latent sexism” from some of her European peers. “She’s a very easy target right now, and everyone is making the most of it,” added the diplomat. “It’s been compounded by the fact that she has not equipped herself with a strong team. No one in her cabinet seems to be advising her properly. They should have foreseen that this would happen.”
Stanley Crossick defends Ashton:
It is overlooked that she is only three months into a brand new job. She must set up and run a new European foreign office and huge diplomatic corps, the External Action Service, which will take time to put in place. She doesn’t therefore yet have a ‘ministry’. The Vice-President’s job is not fly around the world seeking photo-ops but to help to forge a common foreign & security policy between 27 sets of national egos.
Read today on Global Europe: Rulers of the waves, again. Why the EU needs a maritime geostrategy. By James Rogers, DRS Scholar at Pembroke College, University of Cambridge.
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