A loaded EU summit. Today the 27 EU heads of state or government meet in Brussels. At stakes are: Europe’s global role, a response to the Greek crisis (which has turned into a crisis of the Euro) — and Van Rompuy’s prestige. The EU Observer’s Heather Mahony has a curtain-raiser: here. On Van Rompuy’s plan for “economic governance”, read the NY Times: here, and on Germany’s role in the Euro-drama another NY Times piece: here.
The Washington Post’s David Ignatius comments on the Euro-crisis:
Europe is in many respects an economic never-never land. It has a central bank to run a coordinated monetary policy, and a single currency, but it has several dozen finance ministries pursuing separate fiscal policies, many of which can be summed up as: spend, spend, spend. In fiscal terms, “Europe” is often a riderless horse.
Investors accept such shaky situations right up to the moment that, for whatever mysterious reason, they panic and decide the situation is unsustainable. And that’s what has been happening over the past several weeks as the financial markets have been voicing a collective “eeek!” about the European debt and fiscal mess.
The focus of concern has been the debt of the so-called PIGS countries — Portugal, Ireland, Greece and Spain, with some economists adding another “I” for Italy. But debt is only part of the problem. Debt levels as a percentage of gross domestic product were higher last year in booming India (85 percent) than in Portugal (76 percent), Ireland (61 percent) or Spain (57 percent). The larger problem is the lack of political will in the slower-growing European countries to challenge public spending and put fiscal policy on a sustainable path. (…)
European leaders, for the most part, are still trying desperately to avoid the political day of reckoning. Few Europeans, political or conservative, seem willing to give up their share of the entitlements package that is part of the modern social-democratic compact. I wouldn’t really wish the Tea Party movement on anyone, but the Europeans could use some of its passion about fiscal responsibility.
Iran: Massive opposition demonstrations expected today. Carnegie’s Karim Sadjadpour gives some background:
The February 11 anniversary could be particularly significant as it is really the first time that the leadership of the opposition—Mir Hossein Mousavi, Mehdi Karroubi, and Mohammed Khatami—have implored people to take to the streets.
The opposition leaders argue that what people are fighting for today is simply the continuation of an age-old Iranian struggle against despotism that was not resolved by the fall of the monarchy and the creation of an Islamic Republic. It was very significant for Mousavi, a former prime minister and confidant of Khomeini, to concede that the revolution had failed to achieve its objectives.
For weeks now, the government has been warning opposition supporters not to take to the streets by creating an atmosphere of terror and intimidation. Two young political prisoners were recently executed, and several more were recently given death sentences. Despite the threats to their security, I’ve spoken to many people who say they nonetheless plan on demonstrating.
The opposition’s goal is to recreate the massive demonstrations that took place in the immediate aftermath of the election, when an estimated three million people took to the streets in Tehran. That may be a tall order in this environment, but people’s bravery has consistently impressed me over the last eight months.
What Ashton must do on Ukraine. Timothy Garton Ash has some advice:
Yanukovych is the best Ukrainian president we’ve got. We have to work with him. The question now is what we in the European Union can do to help Ukraine towards a more free, prosperous and European future. (…)
The EU should move beyond its current weaselly language (”acknowledging the European aspirations of Ukraine and welcoming its European choice”) to say, in terms, “we want you to be a member of the EU, when you satisfy all the conditions for membership. This is in our interest as well as yours.” It will be hard work to get all the EU’s national leaders to commit to that, but Ashton should start chipping away at it now. Five years in European politics is a long time.
Meanwhile, there is stuff she can start doing today. As she builds up the EU’s new foreign service, she must decide where to concentrate diplomatic and financial resources. The places where the EU can have maximum impact are in our immediate neighbourhood, and few matter more than Ukraine.
Today the EU delegation in Kiev is a dreary, bureaucratic, low-voltage affair, with possibly the world’s most boring website. Within a year, Ashton should turn it into a high-energy example of what an EU embassy can be, with a top-notch, politically astute ambassador, staff chosen from the best of the Brussels bunch and the diplomatic services of member states, fluent Ukrainian-speakers to appear in the Ukrainian media, and exemplary coordination with embassies of EU member states.
The EU’s recently established joint cooperation initiative in Crimea should have a highly visible permanent presence on that troubled peninsular. Its officials should help all the peoples of Crimea (Russians, Ukrainians, Crimean Tatars and others) to get more of the things they badly need – better roads and infrastructure, educational and cultural ties. And by the way: if there were any serious trouble brewing there, we should know about it well in advance.
Although Yanukovych is likely to turn to Moscow for a special gas deal, Brussels should plug away at the need to have realistic domestic gas prices, more energy efficiency, and more diversified, better integrated supply networks. This is a vital European interest.
As for ordinary Ukrainians, the single thing that would make the most difference to them would be the easing of visa restrictions. Anyone who saw the psychological impact in Serbia of last December’s announcement of visa-free travel to the EU will know what I mean.
This is boring, slow, unspectacular stuff, but then, that’s what the EU is good at. A tortoise should do what a tortoise can. I’m told it sometimes even beats a Russian hare.
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