The test. Geoff Dyer, the FT’s China bureau chief, says that an US push for sanctions on Iran would mean for Beijing that it has to choose between two priorities:
The Iran issue falls directly into the new fault line of Chinese foreign policy. Beijing opposes nuclear proliferation and values good relations with the US as a key priority. But worried about energy security, China is also building up extensive energy ties with Iran and the oil industry is so politically powerful that some analysts even talk of an “oil faction” in the Communist party hierarchy. Iran could provide a fascinating insight into just how much sway Obama now has with his Chinese counterpart Hu Jintao and into what China’s real foreign policy priorities are.
A good backgrounder on the current state of the nuclear dispute with Iran is this Q&A with Carnegie’s George Perkovich.
Sarkozy on Herman Van Rompuy (transcript from the press conference on 19 november):
He’s a man who knows very precisely where he’s going. And if people are criticizing him for not being determined and being too flexible, they risk having some rude surprises, some rude surprises. Don’t confuse things, thinking that a tolerant man who’s a bit reserved, perhaps a bit modest, can’t have firm beliefs. So talk to those who know him well about them and you’ll see. I’m going to tell you something: I think he’s one of the strongest personalities around the Council table.
EU top jobs. There is a built-in conflict between the roles of European Council president and foreign policy chief, says Stanley Crossick, a British Brussels veteran, on his blog:
The Lisbon Treaty prescribes for the former a chairperson with an essentially internal job. However, the president also ensures the external representation of the Union on issues concerning its common foreign and security policy, without prejudice to the powers of the foreign policy chief. This is hardly consistent with the treaty provision that the latter represents the Union in matters relating to the common foreign and security policy, conducts political dialogue with third parties on the Union’s behalf, and expresses the Union’s position in international organizations and at international conferences.
But with the nomination of Van Rompuy and Ashton, Crossick expects that things will go smoothly:
Van Rompuy appears made for the basic job specification and his character suggests that he will not seek to project himself on the world stage and relegate Ashton’s role. He should bring greater coordination and efficiency to the European Council. Ashton will not seek to emulate Javier Solana and is expected to focus initially on building and organizing the new diplomatic corps.
And he makes the case that low-key consensus builders are more likely to get the EU to speak with one voice:
There is a good argument for saying that two low-key appointees are more likely to construct the necessary basis for a stronger and more unified role for the EU on the world stage. High profile appointees would have put the leaders of the big Member States on their guard. Remember that foreign policy is the only major policy area in which these leaders can appear to wield international influence. If all goes well, a high profile foreign policy chief will be acceptable in 2015.
Capitals are key. Catherine Ashton’s success as EU foreign policy chief depends on the member states, says the ECFR’s Jose Ignacio Torreblanca:
But for the post to prove a success, the cooperation of national Foreign Ministers is fundamental. Without their active support, nothing will be possible. Will they try to isolate and neutralise whoever gets the post? Or will they really work to make it a success? The key thing is not so much whether the European Commission and the Council can act in a coordinated manner, but whether the national capitals and Brussels will be able to work in an integrated way. The Euro works because the central banks are integrated in one system and are loyal to it. For the same reason, as long as Foreign Ministers fail to see themselves as cogs in the same European machine, Europe will continue to lack a true foreign policy.
From today’s EU agenda: Parliament will discuss enlargement and the fight against piracy off Somalia, see here.
——————————
If you want to receive the Global Europe Morning Brief every weekday by email, send an email to globeurope@gmail.com