Why China is likely to support sanctions on Iran. At least that would be in Beijing’s interest, says John B. Alterman.
Decision making in the White House. “Where Bush was chief executive — with an approach that could be described as ‘decide or delegate’ — Obama is more a chairman of the board”, writes David Ignatius.
Enlargement reports. Yesterday the Commission has published this year’s progress reports about the state of negotiations with prospective member states. Olli Rehn has given a presentation, you find his main points on the Global Europe blog: Accession perspectives for Croatia, Bosnia, Macedonia, Turkey.
Turkish disappointment with the EU. Deutsche Welle talked to Cengiz Aktar, head of European Union studies at Istanbul’s Bachesehir University: “‘On the one hand, Turkey is now moving with this Kurdish opening and this opening towards Armenia,’ Aktar told Deutsche Welle. ‘It’s all in line with EU membership and yet, the negotiations are completely stalled. It is like day and night.’ Aktar said the rest of Europe was absent. ‘The European Commission is there, but the European Union member states are not,’ he said. ‘They are not supporting Turkey in its endeavors.’”
Turkey’s foreign policy perspectives. With or without the EU, Ankara is looking forward to a growing international role, making skilled use of its geo-strategic opportunities. Michael Reynolds sees Ahmet Davutoğlu, a former university professor who became Turkish foreign minister last year, as the architect of the new policy. Davutoğlu, who served for years as Prime Minister Erdoğan’s foreign policy advisor, has laid out his vision in a book (Strategic Depth: Turkey’s International Position). “According to this vision, whereas in the past the Turkish Republic followed a policy of quasi-isolation and self-imposed quarantine from its neighbors, today it should instead seek to take advantage of the cultural and historical links it shares with other countries in its region.” For Reynolds, it was Davutoğlu who made the rapprochement between Turkey and Armenia possible: “The fact that Davutoğlu was able to coordinate both American and Russian support for this Caucasian gambit reflects his exceptional diplomatic skills and the considerable momentum he has already generated for normalization. Turkey’s opening to Armenia will have an impact on everything from stability in the greater Caucasus and Caspian region through world energy supplies and the future of NATO.”
But the signing of the Turkish-Armenian treaty has many father, or mothers. While the first reports have mainly credited Hilary Clinton (with the help of skilled press work by the State Department), now the Russian side also claims a key role. According to Russian media, the story went like this: “American and Russian officials intervened and supported the Turkish proposal to sign the protocols without delivering speeches. While the Armenians were reluctant to sign the protocol, the Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov wrote a note to his Armenian counterpart: ‘Edward! Accept the ceremony without statements!’ Javier Solana (E.U. High Representative for Common Foreign and Security Policy) and the French Foreign Minister Bernard Kouchner signed the note and sent it to Nalbandian –which convinced the Armenians to sign the protocols.”
Gazprom knocking on Croatia’s door. Croatia is “nearing the finishing line” to become a EU member, says Olli Rehn. But Brussels is not the only one making offers: “With Prime Minister Vladimir Putin’s direct backing, Gazprom and other Russian energy companies have embarked upon an effort to co-opt Croatia into their projects, including a fanciful South Stream gas transport project.” Vladimir Socor has more.
New report critical of EU peace support efforts. A new report published by the European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR), written by Daniel Korski and Richard Gowan, says that EU peacekeeping mission are largely failing to meet their goals. Key findings:
- EU member states break promises and significantly under-staff key international missions.
- Crisis missions still rely on the ‘Bosnia-template’, ignoring reality on the ground.
- Turf wars between the European Commission and the European Council weaken missions.
Parliament wants control over new diplomatic service. The European Voice reports: “Members of the European Parliament are threatening a major confrontation with national governments in a bid to gain influence over the European Union’s new diplomatic service. Member states favour giving a separate status and a separate budget to the European External Action Service created by the Lisbon treaty and due to be set up next year to support the new high representative. That means it will not be wholly controlled by the European Commission nor by the Council of Ministers. But leading MEPs want the new service to be part of the Commission, because that will entitle the Parliament to scrutinise the service’s budget, granting it a degree of control.”
Support or kiss of death? Berlusconi backs Blair.
On Vaclav Klaus. “‘He’s acting like some oriental despot,’ said Jiri Pehe, a prominent political scientist. ‘Two chambers of parliament, the constitutional court and the governments of 27 countries support Lisbon. But the representatives of 500 million people are wrong and he’s right. He really thinks he has a monopoly on the truth.’” (source)
From today’s agenda. Olli Rehn will discuss enlargement with the EP’s foreign policy committee, and the development committee will discuss developments in the UN human rights council and financial support to democracy and human rights. Watch both live here.
Read on Global Europe a piece by Christa Meindersma, Deputy Director of The Hague Centre for Strategic Studies: Think twice before you go. Why Europeans must stay engaged in Afghanistan.
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